{"id":1355,"date":"2021-10-21T10:22:39","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T09:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/broadstreetwealth.co.uk\/?p=1355"},"modified":"2021-11-02T10:38:23","modified_gmt":"2021-11-02T10:38:23","slug":"broadstreet-bulletin-issue-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/broadstreetwealth.co.uk\/broadstreet-bulletin-issue-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Broadstreet bulletin – Issue 1"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
In September 2020, annual inflation in the UK was running at 0.5% on the CPI measure and 1.1% using the old RPI yardstick. At the time price rises were the least of the economic concerns. Wind forward 12 months and inflation has become a hot topic. The latest (August) figures are 3.2% CPI and 4.8% RPI. The increase was the highest monthly CPI rise ever recorded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and brings the inflation rate to the level last seen in March 2012. As the graph shows, 2021 has seen something of an inflationary renaissance.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
Inflation was once known as the \u2018British disease\u2019, reflecting the problems of the 1970s when annual price increases topped 20%. This time around, the UK is not alone in experiencing a jump in prices. Across the Atlantic, the USA has seen inflation leap from 1.4% last September to a 13-year high of 5.4% in June and July 2021, before easing to 5.3% in August.<\/p>
The Eurozone, which has long struggled to meet its inflation target, has joined in too: prices were falling by 0.3% a year in September 2020, whilst in August 2021 they were rising at 3% – the highest since November 2011 and well above the European Central Bank\u2019s new central target of 2%.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
The favourite word used by central bankers to describe the uptick in inflation is \u2018transitory\u2019. There is a case to be made for that view:<\/p>
The argument against the central bankers\u2019 optimism is partly that \u2018they-would-say-that-wouldn\u2019t-they?\u2019 If they thought that the spike in inflation was more than a blip, then the central bankers would need to reverse their current policies of keeping interest rates around zero and buying large quantities of their Governments\u2019 bonds. Such a change would have serious consequences for the Governments concerned, all of which have borrowed heavily in response to the pandemic and can ill-afford a higher interest bill.<\/p>
The worry is that price inflation is already starting to work through into wage increases, although there are distortions here too \u2013 in July, average pay in the UK was up 8.3% year on year. Wage rises could then lead to further price rises and so the spiral begins\u2026<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
For the last 20 years to the end of 2020, CPI inflation averaged 2.1% and RPI inflation 2.9%. That has been close enough to the Bank of England\u2019s target to be of no concern. An inflation rate of 4-5% would start to have a serious impact on investment and financial planning. At 5%, purchasing power halves over 14 years, whereas at 2% the same erosion takes place across 35 years.\u00a0<\/p>
Higher inflation would probably also mean higher interest rates. That could drive down the value of many investments, simply because the higher the interest rate, the lower the discounted value of future investment income.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t As far as possible, your financial planning \u2013 from basic life cover to portfolio investment \u2013 should take account of inflation. Recent decades of low inflation have reduced the cost of ignoring this principle, but it may prove an expensive error going forward \u2013 do you want your retirement living standards to halve every 14 years..?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t The UK tax system is notorious for its complexity. Every year seems to get worse, with a fresh Finance Act adding a few hundred more pages of legislation \u2013 this year\u2019s Act ran to 417 pages. One of the more bizarre aspects of our tax system is the tax year 6 April starting date for individuals, rather than a more logical date such as 1 January (chosen by many countries) or even 1 April.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t That 6 April date has its roots in England\u2019s distant past. It began life as 25 March (Lady Day), which was New Year\u2019s Day in England from the middle of the 12th century. The introduction of the Gregorian calendar in 1752 and an anomalous leap year in 1800 resulted in an extra 12 days being added, to arrive at the current 6 April date. Both additions were driven by Governments anxious to keep 365 days of revenue in one tax year.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t In June, the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) announced that it would be undertaking \u2018a high-level exploration and analysis of the benefits, costs and wider implications of a change in the date of the end of the UK tax year for individuals\u2019. Somewhat disappointingly, the OTS said its focus would be on moving the end of the tax year to 31 March, which would align it with the Government\u2019s own financial year and the corporation tax year.<\/p> However, the OTS did also promise to \u2018outline the main additional broader issues\u2019 of a move to align the tax year with the calendar year. Interestingly, just such a change was undertaken by Ireland in 2002, when it had a shortened tax year running from 6 April 2002 to 31 December 2002.<\/p> When the OTS published its review on 15 September, unsurprisingly, it confirmed that a clear majority of those responding thought that the UK should adopt a different year end. Alas, their wish will not be granted, at least in the short term. The OTS recommended that any change should wait until after major HMRC projects have been completed, such as the Single Customer Account and Making Tax Digital (MTD) for income tax.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t In the month after the OTS\u2019s June review announcement, HMRC weighed in with a consultation paper on another aspect of the tax calendar; the taxation of the self-employed, including partnerships. HMRC\u2019s proposals revolved around that key 6 April date and made no mention of the OTS work.<\/p> Currently, the \u2018basis year\u2019 approach means that the self-employed generally pay tax on the profits earned in their trading year ending in the tax year. The choice of trading year is down to the individual or partnership. So, for example, if you have a trading year that runs from 1 May to the following 30 April, in the 2021\/22 tax year, you will be taxed on the profits earned in your trading year 1 May 2020 to 30 April 2021.<\/p> HMRC wants to change the basis year method to mean that the self-employed are taxed on what they earn during a tax year. The consultation paper says this is necessary as part of its MTD for income tax programme and would take effect from 6 April 2023. Such a reform would have two important consequences:<\/p> The HMRC proposals have received predictably wide criticism, with many tax professionals saying they are being forced through far too quickly \u2013 even the consultation period was halved to six weeks, most of which fell in August. Others have suggested the idea was just another example of the Treasury\u2019s familiar money-raising ruse of accelerating tax payments.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t If you have the sense that any real reduction in the complexity of the UK tax system is as distant as ever, you are probably correct. With Government borrowing at record levels, any \u2018simplification\u2019 that does eventually emerge from the current proposals is likely to hide higher and\/or faster tax payments. Guidance on tax planning will continue to be vital.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\tThe return of inflation? <\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
Blame history<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
The Office of Tax Simplification reviews a revision<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
HMRC has its own ideas<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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